OUA Second place Contenders

Written by Russ Wong & John Hayman - special to 3rd & Goal

Never have I seen a season that is so competive. This year, the final weekend will decide which of three teams takes the second spot. Here's the deal on how.

Current standings:

Western (6-1) - home to UofT
Laurier (5-2) - home to Waterloo
McMaster (5-2) - away at York
Waterloo (4-3) - away at Laurier

In the event of a two-way tie,

the team who won the regular season game takes the higher standing.

In the event of a three-way tie,

the team with the best point differential in head-to-head competition takes the prize

If Western wins, Laurier wins, McMaster win or loss:

Western (7-1)
Laurier (6-2)
McMaster (6-2 or 5-3)
Waterloo (4-4)

A McMaster loss makes the standings easy to figure out. However a McMaster win would cause Laurier and McMaster to have identical 6-2 records. Laurier gets the edge over McMaster because they beat them in the regular season.

If Western wins, Laurier loses, McMaster wins:

Western (7-1)
McMaster (6-2)
Waterloo (5-3)
Laurier (5-3)

Western and McMaster earn their spots based on record. Waterloo earns it's spot by beating Laurier.

If Western loses, Laurier wins, McMaster loses:

Western (6-2)
Laurier (6-2)
McMaster (5-3)
Waterloo (4-4)

Western gets the nod over Laurier since they won the season series.

If Western loses, Laurier loses, McMaster wins:

McMaster (6-2)
Western (6-2)
Waterloo (5-3)
Laurier (5-3)

Even though Mac and Western are tied, the edge goes to McMaster since they beat Western in the regular season. Waterloo gets the edge over Laurier since Waterloo beat them in the regular season.

Now it gets complicated!

Ok, that was the easy part. There are a couple of ways to cause a 3-way logjam in the standings.

If Western loses, Laurier wins, McMaster wins.

Western (6-2)
Laurier (6-2)
McMaster (6-2)
Waterloo (4-4)

This gets more complicated. Western beat Laurier who beat McMaster who beat Western. We then go to the point differential in games involving two of the three teams. Western beat Laurier by 33 and lost to McMaster by 7 giving them a +26 differential. Laurier beat McMaster by 26 and lost to Western by 33, giving them a -7 differential. Similarly McMaster would have a -26 differential. This puts Western in first, Laurier in second, McMaster third, and Waterloo fourth.

If Western wins or loses, Laurier loses, McMaster loses. This creates a real logjam that's hard to un-jam. Pay close attention now. Here are the cases:

If Waterloo beats Laurier by less than 17 points:
1. Western (7-1 or 6-2)
2. Laurier (5-3), point differential between +9 and +25
3. Waterloo (5-3), point differential between -7 and +8
4. McMaster (5-3), point differential of -17
If Waterloo beats Laurier by 18 to 34 points:
1. Western (7-1 or 6-2)
2. Waterloo (5-3), point differential between +9 and +25
3. Laurier (5-3), point differential between -17 and +8
4. McMaster (5-3), point differential of -17
If Waterloo beats Laurier by more than 34 points:
1. Western (7-1 or 6-2)
2. Waterloo (5-3), point differential greater than +25
3. McMaster (5-3), point differential of -17
4. Laurier (5-3), point differential less than -17
If Waterloo beats Laurier by exactly 34 points: Your guess is as good as mine. You end up with a three way tie, and point differential will cause Laurier and McMaster to be tied. A serious abacus is required to work out the remaining tie breaking formula.
Predictions? It's extremely tough for Waterloo to take second place. I don't believe that Mac will have trouble with York. Waterloo and Laurier are very evenly matched (Laurier has scored 20 points more, Waterloo has given up 10 points less) and are playing on a field that they share, eliminating home team advantage. This game could go either way.
All in all, an exciting finish to the season.